2007 Academy
Award Analysis
2007
| 2008 | 2009
| 2010 | 2011
| 2012 | 2013
Recap:
i
went 11 of 24 (correct answers are marked by an "x" in the table above)
which is pretty pathetic. i overthought some of the categories and was
overly pessimistic at times.
Key:
my pick
my prediction
if i've seen it, film titles
will link to my review of that film.
Best
Motion Picture of the Year Nominees:
Babel
(2006): Alejandro González Iñárritu, Steve Golin,
Jon Kilik
The Departed
(2006): Graham King
Letters
from Iwo Jima (2006): Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg, Robert Lorenz
Little
Miss Sunshine (2006): David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub
The Queen
(2006): Andy Harries, Christine Langan, Tracey Seaward
first, some stats: in other
words, the film that wins has nominations in the following categories (in
order of importance): director, screenplay, acting, editing, and cinematography.
incidentally, when i looked at these categories relative to best picture
winners from 1970-present, the trends were even more pronounced.
percentage
of time that best picture winners have nominations in the following categories,
1927/28-Present:
| direction |
96.2% |
| screenplay |
91.0% |
| acting |
87.2% |
| editing |
80.8% |
| cinematography |
62.8% |
| Title |
direction
|
screenplay
|
acting
|
editing
|
cinematography
|
| Babel |
yes
|
yes
|
2
|
yes
|
no
|
| Departed |
yes
|
yes
|
1
|
yes
|
no
|
| Letters From Iwo Jima |
yes
|
yes
|
-
|
no
|
no
|
| Little Miss Sunshine |
no
|
yes
|
2
|
no
|
no
|
| Queen |
yes
|
yes
|
1
|
no
|
no
|
none of the films were
nominated for cinematography, which is odd, but makes things a bit easier.
keeping these numbers in mind it becomes clear that two films have the
odds against them: letters from iwo jima has no acting nominations and
no editing nomination. little miss sunshine has no editing nomination and
no directing nomination. so, i will assume that it is between the remaining
three.
lately the academy has
tended to be topical. they seem to want to be on the cutting edge. the
most topical films of the year are babel and letters from iwo jima, which
i thought to be inferior films. babel is like crash (last year's winner)
in that it's an ensemble piece and tackles a heavy subject. in recent history
the academy tends towards the epic films. the departed and babel both have
this going for them. to me, queen just didn't get the hype and is generally
seen as more of a helen mirren film than anything else. though the subject
of princess diana may inspire some in the academy. that said, my personal
pick would be the departed and then
little miss sunshine. and my prediction is the departed
because it has all the requisite nominations and people will want to reward
scorsese before its too late. i also think that it had a less divided response
than babel.
Best
Achievement in Directing Nominees:
Clint Eastwood for
Letters
from Iwo Jima (2006)
Stephen Frears for
The Queen (2006)
Paul Greengrass for
United
93 (2006)
Alejandro González
Iñárritu for Babel
(2006)
Martin Scorsese for
The Departed (2006)
percentage
of time that direction winners have nominations in the following categories,
1927/28-Present:
| picture |
98.7% |
| acting |
89.7% |
| editing |
75.6% |
| director |
picture
|
acting
|
editing
|
| eastwood |
yes
|
-
|
no
|
| frears |
yes
|
1 lead
|
no
|
| greengrass |
no
|
-
|
yes
|
| inarritu |
yes
|
2 supporting
|
yes
|
| scorsese |
yes
|
1 supporting
|
yes
|
looking at the numbers
it appears as though greengrass doesn't have much chance since the winner
of best director didn't have his film nominated only once in the history
of the academy (and it happened very early, though i forget the name of
the film). united 93 also didn't have any acting nominations so it's going
to be doubly difficult for greengrass. that said, this is a post-9/11 world
so, i'm told, everything's different. whatever. this isn't shown above,
but it's important to note that there was a significant percentage boost
for the director who directed a leading actor vs. a supporting actor. this
year, only frears holds the distinction of directing an actor who was nominated
for a leading performance.
the stats seem to indicate
a race between inarritu and scorsese, with frears being an outside possibility.
to me, the choice would be obvious. i definitely think inarritu has a chance
here and while generally the best picture winner (which i projected to
go to the departed) also has the best director winner, that rule has been
broken more frequently lately. that said, there's going to be a lot of
sentiment to give it to scorsese since many consider him the greatest living
american film director (especially with the passing of the overrated robert
altman). i think this is scorsese's year because the departed is great
and it got a lot of people talking and people (including myself) want
to give it to scorsese. in my end of year awards i picked greengrass
just above scorsese because his direction was superb in a difficult to
manage film. further, i think that scorsese
has made better films and the aviator may have been an even better directed
film. that said, i enjoyed the departed more.
Best
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio for
Blood
Diamond (2006)
Ryan Gosling for Half
Nelson (2006)
Peter O'Toole for Venus
(2006)
Will Smith for The
Pursuit
of Happyness (2006)
Forest Whitaker for
The Last King of Scotland
(2006)
the academy got it half
right when they nominated dicaprio, they just chose the wrong performance.
smith and whitaker were good, but not great. dicaprio was good in blood
diamond, but was better in the departed. of these five, my choice would
be gosling in half nelson, but i think
the academy will go with whitaker.
he's getting the most buzz, he won the SAG and, quite frankly, i think
that the academy feels the need to continue in the "progressive" tradition
after clooney's speech last year.
Best
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role Nominees:
Penélope Cruz
for Volver (2006)
Judi Dench for Notes
on a Scandal (2006)
Helen Mirren for The
Queen
(2006)
Meryl Streep for The
Devil
Wears Prada (2006)
Kate Winslet for Little
Children (2006)
streep always has oscar
buzz and she got it plenty early this year. films released early in the
year have the dvd advantage these days, but they also fade in the memory.
the devil wears prada wasn't as good a movie as some of the others and
streep has plenty of wins already, so i don't see her winning it with this
performance. she actually has fewer wins than katharine hepburn, but more
acting nominations than anyone in history. winslet did a good job and has
been nominated before. cruz did a decent job, but the film is less known
and the performance really wasn't that dynamic. dench
would be my pick, but the academy is going to go with mirren.
it's topical and a big character. kind of cheating though, since she played
queen elizabeth I in the elizabeth miniseries. working slightly against
her is the fact that she called the academy awards the "creme de la creme
of bullshit."
Best
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees:
Alan Arkin for Little
Miss Sunshine (2006)
Jackie Earle Haley
for Little Children (2006)
Djimon Hounsou for
Blood
Diamond (2006)
Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls
(2006)
Mark Wahlberg for The
Departed
(2006)
alan arkin and jackie earle
haley have got to be the dark horses here. arkin is great and provides
a lot of the comic oomph early in the film. i'm not sure if he's won before
(he has been nominated), but he's had a good career so this might be a
makeup call (think pacino in scent of a woman) if he wins here. the academy
likes to reward rising talent so it could go for a half makeup call (since
he didn't win for his great performance in "in america") and a half legitimate
choice of djimon hounsou. murphy is the talk of the town and the academy
does like to see once in a lifetime type performances, maybe this is it
for murphy. wahlberg was my choice
because he brought a comic intensity to the film. i'm leaning towards the
award going to murphy,
though, because i'm a pessimist and because his performance will be seen
as more dynamic by the same fools who thought dreamgirls was a good movie.
Best
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees:
Adriana Barraza for
Babel
(2006)
Cate Blanchett for
Notes
on a Scandal (2006)
Abigail Breslin for
Little
Miss Sunshine (2006)
Jennifer Hudson for
Dreamgirls
(2006)
Rinko Kikuchi for Babel
(2006)
they didn't nominate vera
farmiga here and that's a shame. she was better than everyone on this list,
with the possible exception of abigail breslin. the reason i didn't give
breslin the nod in my end of year awards is because she was part of such
a solid cast that singling her out felt wrong. blanchett has a good performance,
but she already won for the aviator and this performance isn't great. hudson
is getting a lot of talk and she sings so that tends to help. i would think
that the babel performances would negate each other, but there have been
instances in the past when two actors in the same film have been nominated
and one still ended up winning. the smart money is on hudson, but i'll
go with breslin
because, unlike in the last paragraph, now i'm an optimist.
Best
Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen Nominees:
Babel
(2006): Guillermo Arriaga
Letters
from Iwo Jima (2006): Iris Yamashita, Paul Haggis
Little
Miss Sunshine (2006): Michael Arndt
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006): Guillermo del Toro
The Queen
(2006): Peter Morgan
this category might be
the easiest of the lot for my own personal pick. little
miss sunshine was barely only the second best film of the year,
and clearly the #1 original film of the year. the rest of the films in
this category are merely mediocre by comparison and will quickly be forgotten
(though pan's labyrinth will probably produce a cult following). babel
will probably pick up the win here because the story is more complex and
the writing more involved than the meditative letters from iwo jima or
the queen, which was based upon real events so it shouldn't even be here.
babel was also nominated for best picture, director, and editing.
Best
Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
Borat:
Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
(2006): Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd
Phillips
Children
of Men (2006): Alfonso Cuarón, Timothy J. Sexton, David Arata,
Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby
The Departed
(2006): William Monahan
Little
Children (2006): Todd Field, Tom Perrotta
Notes
on a Scandal (2006): Patrick Marber
if anyone actually watches
the film (infernal affairs) that the departed
was based upon they might give the award on the spot. the hong kong film
(infernal affairs) upon which it was based was pretty dreadful at times,
though it did have many of the key elements of the final american version,
which might turn off some voters. to me, it only solidified my feelings
for scorsese because i saw what was done with the same idea and how he
was able to make it into something so much better.
notes on a scandal has
a literary quality to it that should definitely help its case. little children
has a good, smart and well-balanced script so it should receive high consideration
as well. borat is a great film, but not enough of it was actually written.
as an aside, i think that cohen did himself a disservice by showing up
to his interviews to plug the film as borat. he would have been much wiser
to go as himself. seeing him out of character would have made people realize
how good an actor he really is. as most people in the academy probably
haven't seen da ali g show or seen him as himself, they probably didn't
know what to make of him as an actor. oh well.
i'm going to stick with
my theme that this is scorsese's year and predict the departed
to win.
Best
Achievement in Cinematography Nominees:
The Black
Dahlia (2006): Vilmos Zsigmond
Children
of Men (2006): Emmanuel Lubezki
The Illusionist
(2006): Dick Pope
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006): Guillermo Navarro
The Prestige
(2006): Wally Pfister
i've yet to see the illusionist,
but i've seen all the others. black dahlia has zsigmond (deer hunter) behind
the camera and he does a good job overall, but i didn't find the camerawork
to be all that great. these new age noirs tend not to be all that visually
interesting to me. they look too good, even when they're in black and white
(which this one is not). my own personal tastes have this as a two movie
race - pan's labyrinth and children of men. my guess is that pan's
labyrinth will win because 1) it's deserving and 2) it's one
of only two films (the other being the prestige) that was nominated for
art direction as well. my personal pick would be for children
of men because of its handheld work and the dark, oppressive
look of the picture.
Best
Achievement in Editing Nominees:
Babel
(2006): Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione
Blood
Diamond (2006): Steven Rosenblum
Children
of Men (2006): Alfonso Cuarón, Alex Rodríguez
The Departed
(2006): Thelma Schoonmaker
United
93 (2006): Clare Douglas, Richard Pearson, Christopher Rouse
children of men and blood
diamond are the odd ones here because they have neither direction nor best
picture nominations. both were good films and children of men was edited
impressively, but i don't think they have much of a chance from a statistical
or artistic point of view.
departed uses editing well
to compact an epic story into a film less that 150 minutes long. scorsese
has worked with the same woman as his editor on most of his films and,
if memory serves, she won it for the aviator the last time she was nominated.
as i've already picked the departed to win best picture and direction,
casting a prediction in any other direction would be a gamble. while the
departed
would be my pick, i could definitely see babel or united 93 coming up and
snatching this one. because of the nature of the babel (occurring in different
places and on different temporal planes) this one is ripe for an editing
nomination and win. united 93 is similar, but is told chronologically,
whereas babel played with time a bit. frankly, it's a tough call because
all three frontrunners were well edited. i'll go with babel
here.
Best
Achievement in Art Direction Nominees:
Dreamgirls
(2006): John Myhre, Nancy Haigh
The Good
Shepherd (2006): Jeannine Claudia Oppewall, Gretchen Rau, Leslie E.
Rollins
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006): Eugenio Caballero, Pilar Revuelta
Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006): Rick Heinrichs, Cheryl Carasik
The Prestige
(2006): Nathan Crowley, Julie Ochipinti
for the same reason that
i pick dreamgirls to win costume design,
i predict it to win art direction. that said, i was way more blown away
by the art direction in pan's labyrinth
and think that it would be the runaway winner. pirates of the caribbean
has a good shot as well since people liked that crappy movie for some reason.
Best
Achievement in Costume Design Nominees:
Man cheng jin dai huang
jin jia (2006): Chung Man Yee
The Devil
Wears Prada (2006): Patricia Field
Dreamgirls
(2006): Sharen Davis
Marie
Antoinette (2006): Milena Canonero
The Queen
(2006): Consolata Boyle
82.7% of the time the film
that wins costume design was also nominated for art direction. this year
only one film holds a nomination in both categories - dreamgirls. frankly,
nothing in the other films leads me to believe that they will outweigh
the numbers on this one. while dreamgirls
was an awful film, i wouldn't mind it picking up the costume design award.
Best
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score Nominees:
Babel
(2006): Gustavo Santaolalla
The Good German (2006):
Thomas Newman
Notes
on a Scandal (2006): Philip Glass
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006): Javier Navarrete
The Queen
(2006): Alexandre Desplat
frankly, i remember only
two of these scores: philip glass' from notes on a scandal (because it
was brilliant and perfectly echoed the tone and themes of the picture)
and santaolalla's for babel (because it was awful). i don't have any stats
or historical info to back this up, but i'm going to say that philip
glass will finally get his oscar.
Best
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song Nominees:
An
Inconvenient Truth (2006): Melissa Etheridge ("I Need To Wake Up")
Dreamgirls
(2006): Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler, Anne Preven ("Listen")
Dreamgirls
(2006): Henry Krieger, Siedah Garrett ("Love You I Do")
Cars
(2006): Randy Newman ("Our Town")
Dreamgirls
(2006): Henry Krieger, Willie Reale ("Patience")
this is usually the worst
category in the oscars because my taste in music differs so much from that
of the academy. that said, last year's winners made it interesting, for
once. all these songs are crap so i don't have a personal pick, but my
prediction is that one of the dreamgirls songs will win. patience?
Best
Achievement in Makeup Nominees:
Apocalypto (2006):
Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano
Click
(2006): Kazuhiro Tsuji, Bill Corso
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006): David Martí, Montse Ribé
while i didn't see apocalypto,
i don't think one needed look any further than pan's labyrinth for this
category. the makeup here is great and brings back memories of the good
ole days when creatures were created with costumes and makeup, rather than
cgi effects. it's not that i am completely opposed to cgi effects, but
for characters i do prefer models, makeup, costumes, etc. look no further
than the most recent incarnation of yoda vs. the original. pan's
labyrinth should, and will, win.
Best
Achievement in Sound Nominees:
Apocalypto (2006):
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Fernando Cámara
Blood
Diamond (2006): Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ivan Sharrock
Dreamgirls
(2006): Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie D. Burton
Flags
of Our Fathers (2006): John T. Reitz, David E. Campbell, Gregg Rudloff,
Walt Martin
Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006): Paul Massey, Christopher
Boyes, Lee Orloff
two of the last four winners
in this category were musicals or about the music industry. clearly that
puts dreamgirls at the top here. other typical winners here, though, are
blockbusters, action, or war films (saving private ryan, king kong, lord
of the rings, black hawk down, gladiator, matrix, titanic) so that brings
pirates of the caribbean and flags of our fathers into contention. personally,
i felt that children of men should have been nominated here, but no one's
likely to create a stir over this category. i think that dreamgirls
will win, but flags of our fathers
would be my pick of the five.
Best
Achievement in Sound Editing Nominees:
Apocalypto (2006):
Sean McCormack, Kami Asgar
Blood
Diamond (2006): Lon Bender
Flags
of Our Fathers (2006): Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman
Letters
from Iwo Jima (2006): Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman
Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006): George Watters II, Christopher
Boyes
it's a bit unfortunate
that both eastwood films had to be nominated here. it's not good for them
(because the votes are likely to be split) and because it means that another
film doesn't get to be included. flags of our
fathers should win, and probably still will, but pirates could
snatch this one.
Best
Achievement in Visual Effects Nominees:
Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006): John Knoll, Hal T. Hickel,
Charles Gibson, Allen Hall
Poseidon
(2006): Boyd Shermis, Kim Libreri, Chas Jarrett, John Frazier
Superman
Returns (2006): Mark Stetson, Richard R. Hoover, Neil Corbould, Jon
Thum
this one will go to the
people who essentially made pirates of the
caribbean.
Best
Animated Feature Film of the Year Nominees:
Cars
(2006): John Lasseter
Happy Feet (2006):
George Miller
Monster House (2006):
Gil Kenan
i only saw one of these
so i'm not all that informed, but i'll say that cars
should and will win. it should be noted that happy feet was directed by
the same guy who did road warrrior.
Best
Foreign Language Film of the Year Nominees:
Efter brylluppet (2006)(Denmark)
Indigènes (2006)(Algeria)
Laberinto
del Fauno, El (2006)(Mexico)
Leben der Anderen,
Das (2006)(Germany)
Water (2005)(Canada)
considering the fact that
pan's
labyrinth is currently #65 on imdb.com's all-time list, i think
it's a safe bet to say it'll win. i haven't seen any of the others so i
can't say if it's any more deserving then they are.
Best
Documentary, Features Nominees:
Deliver Us from Evil
(2006): Amy Berg, Frank Donner
An
Inconvenient Truth (2006): Davis Guggenheim
Iraq in Fragments (2006):
James Longley, Yahya Sinno
Jesus
Camp (2006): Heidi Ewing, Rachel Grady
My Country My Country
(2006): Laura Poitras, Jocelyn Glatzer
great. two documentaries
about religion, two about iraq and one about global warming. doesn't get
much heavier than that. only one of these films received serious hype on
the level of march of penguins or bowling for columbine and that's al gore's
an
inconvenient truth. it'll likely
win, though i think i was more moved by jesus camp. of all the films released
this year, though, an inconvenient truth might be the one about the most
important subject in human history; verdict isn't in on that one yet.
Best
Documentary, Short Subjects Nominees:
The Blood of Yingzhou
District (2006): Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon
Recycled Life (2006):
Leslie Iwerks, Mike Glad
Rehearsing a Dream:
Karen Goodman, Kirk Simon
Two Hands: The Leon
Fleisher Story (2006): Nathaniel Kahn, Susan Rose Behr
recycled life has the most
votes, and highest rating on imdb of these five, but that doesn't say all
that much because none of them has more than 10 votes. two hands is directed
by nathaniel kahn, who did the quality documentary my
architect so i know he has some skill as a documentarian and some name
recognition with the few people who will vote on this category. i'll guess
that two hands: the leon fleisher story
will win.
Best
Short Film, Animated Nominees:
The Danish Poet (2006):
Torill Kove
Lifted (2006): Gary
Rydstrom
The Little Matchgirl
(2006): Roger Allers, Don Hahn
Maestro (2005): Géza
M. Tóth
No Time for Nuts (2006):
Chris Renaud, Mike Thurmeier
little
matchgirl is based upon a hans christian andersen story and
is produced by disney, it'll win.
Best
Short Film, Live Action Nominees:
Binta y la gran idea
(2004): Javier Fesser, Luis Manso
Éramos pocos
(2005): Borja Cobeaga
Helmer & Søn
(2006): Søren Pilmark, Kim Magnusson
The Saviour (2005):
Peter Templeman, Stuart Parkyn
West Bank Story (2005):
Ari Sandel
binta
y la gran idea will take home the oscar. wouldn't even be considered
in my awards, though, since it was originally released two years ago.